Thursday, July 20, 2006
Global Warming and Thailand
Clik here, for a collection of recent scientific findings digested into consumable form.
As any fairly educated person knows, there is this phenomenon called 'Global warming' which has garnered increasing interest from people all over the world. There has been much debate about a) whether the Global Warming is real and b) whether it is caused by human activity.
The consensus of most experts are that yes, the warming is real, and yes, human activity has something to do with it. Measurenents of temperature register a rise in recent decades which correlate with the rise in carbon dioxide concentration. Furthermore, the breakup of Antarctic ice shelf and Artic ice cap in recent years, and the spectacular glacial retreats worldwide are indisputable.
Of course, for the powerful interests that thrive on people burning fossils are none too pleased about it. These include the like of Exxon crowds and Bush, Cheney & Co.
The climate skeptics also count among them Michael Crichton and Tom Clancy, both of whom have penned novels with the villains being the 'eco-terrorists', hell-bent on radical measures to preserve the environment at the expense of humanity and their so-called 'way of life'.
Well, they are entitled to their opinions. But as we all know, the law of nature is immune to man's delusion. If the earth is warming up, it is going to do so regardless of your passionate belief otherwise. Your self-denial is not going to stop whatever climatic catastrophe that will unfold. Nature is impersonal.
Recent findings and others like this, suggest that climate change is irreversible in the next 100 years. So, we'll have to learn to live with it, like it or not.
In Thailand, being a small coutry, and late in the industrialization game, this issue is not being taken seriously. Sure, it will show up on Sci&Tech pages of newspaper here and there, and featured on documentaries from time to time, but it is really a curiosity rather than a pressing issue. In the best of time, it will be hard pressed for those people in charge to care about this long-term climate things, and now with the current political turmoil, fuhgedaboutit.
But like I said, the law of nature is immune to man's delusion. Ignoring the problem is probably not a good preventative measure. Natural catastrophe is an equal opportunity disruptor. It's going to hit you whether it's acknowledged or not.
So, what can we expect from this Global warming things. Well, there is currently no supercomputer powerful enough to predict exactly what is going to happen and when. Things that likely will happen are disruption and alteration of rainfall patterns. Another thing is the rise in sea level, which potentially can happened if the freshwater stored in the antarctic ice cap melts. If that happened, Bangkok is going to be in a big trouble. You can simulate it here, actually, maybe it will be a useful guide for real estate invesment.
This probably won't happen today or tomorrow. But characteristically, Thais seem to take the usual nonchalant attitude. They even build a spanking new airport in a swamp right by the sea, as if to taunt Mother Nature, "Flood this, if you can."
This is quite worrisome. Even if the probability of this happening may be slight (I think it's quite high actually), at least the people in charge, and the populace should be troubled about it, since Bangkok is by far the most important part of the country. But it looks like nobody really care, maybe they really think that this kind of calamity are reserved for those poor foreign folks we see in the news. It could never happen here, they would say.
Well, no one thought Tsunami could happen here either. Thais should consider themselves warned.
But then, you ask, what could we do? It looks like the global warming and unpredictable climate changes will be here with us for the foreseeable future. So, we will have to have some plans in place to deal with this. Bangkok will need to be protected from flood, probably with some permanent infrastructures, lots of canals, lakes, and pumping stations. Furthermore, it is time to decentralize the development from the Bangkok metro to other provincial center. Besides diversifying the risks, this will be a catalysts for further regional development. Disaster prevention planning should also be extended to the grassroots level. This means educating the local residents, and have local eyes and ears to spot potential trouble spots, for example, a silted-up drainage canal, potential mudslide risks, unrepaired levees, vulnerable evacuation routes, deforested watershed, and so on. It's a lot of work to do and it's impossible to list them all. But it's time to start.
I don't have high hope people will pay attention to this. Most likely, something terrible will have to happen first, and then people will selflessly devote themselves to alleviate the sufferings of others and so on, an outpouring of sympathy, etc. etc. That's virtuous and cute and all, yes. But I just hope we can just grow up and deal with this like any decent forward-looking society.
Clik here, for a collection of recent scientific findings digested into consumable form.
As any fairly educated person knows, there is this phenomenon called 'Global warming' which has garnered increasing interest from people all over the world. There has been much debate about a) whether the Global Warming is real and b) whether it is caused by human activity.
The consensus of most experts are that yes, the warming is real, and yes, human activity has something to do with it. Measurenents of temperature register a rise in recent decades which correlate with the rise in carbon dioxide concentration. Furthermore, the breakup of Antarctic ice shelf and Artic ice cap in recent years, and the spectacular glacial retreats worldwide are indisputable.
Of course, for the powerful interests that thrive on people burning fossils are none too pleased about it. These include the like of Exxon crowds and Bush, Cheney & Co.
The climate skeptics also count among them Michael Crichton and Tom Clancy, both of whom have penned novels with the villains being the 'eco-terrorists', hell-bent on radical measures to preserve the environment at the expense of humanity and their so-called 'way of life'.
Well, they are entitled to their opinions. But as we all know, the law of nature is immune to man's delusion. If the earth is warming up, it is going to do so regardless of your passionate belief otherwise. Your self-denial is not going to stop whatever climatic catastrophe that will unfold. Nature is impersonal.
Recent findings and others like this, suggest that climate change is irreversible in the next 100 years. So, we'll have to learn to live with it, like it or not.
In Thailand, being a small coutry, and late in the industrialization game, this issue is not being taken seriously. Sure, it will show up on Sci&Tech pages of newspaper here and there, and featured on documentaries from time to time, but it is really a curiosity rather than a pressing issue. In the best of time, it will be hard pressed for those people in charge to care about this long-term climate things, and now with the current political turmoil, fuhgedaboutit.
But like I said, the law of nature is immune to man's delusion. Ignoring the problem is probably not a good preventative measure. Natural catastrophe is an equal opportunity disruptor. It's going to hit you whether it's acknowledged or not.
So, what can we expect from this Global warming things. Well, there is currently no supercomputer powerful enough to predict exactly what is going to happen and when. Things that likely will happen are disruption and alteration of rainfall patterns. Another thing is the rise in sea level, which potentially can happened if the freshwater stored in the antarctic ice cap melts. If that happened, Bangkok is going to be in a big trouble. You can simulate it here, actually, maybe it will be a useful guide for real estate invesment.
This probably won't happen today or tomorrow. But characteristically, Thais seem to take the usual nonchalant attitude. They even build a spanking new airport in a swamp right by the sea, as if to taunt Mother Nature, "Flood this, if you can."
This is quite worrisome. Even if the probability of this happening may be slight (I think it's quite high actually), at least the people in charge, and the populace should be troubled about it, since Bangkok is by far the most important part of the country. But it looks like nobody really care, maybe they really think that this kind of calamity are reserved for those poor foreign folks we see in the news. It could never happen here, they would say.
Well, no one thought Tsunami could happen here either. Thais should consider themselves warned.
But then, you ask, what could we do? It looks like the global warming and unpredictable climate changes will be here with us for the foreseeable future. So, we will have to have some plans in place to deal with this. Bangkok will need to be protected from flood, probably with some permanent infrastructures, lots of canals, lakes, and pumping stations. Furthermore, it is time to decentralize the development from the Bangkok metro to other provincial center. Besides diversifying the risks, this will be a catalysts for further regional development. Disaster prevention planning should also be extended to the grassroots level. This means educating the local residents, and have local eyes and ears to spot potential trouble spots, for example, a silted-up drainage canal, potential mudslide risks, unrepaired levees, vulnerable evacuation routes, deforested watershed, and so on. It's a lot of work to do and it's impossible to list them all. But it's time to start.
I don't have high hope people will pay attention to this. Most likely, something terrible will have to happen first, and then people will selflessly devote themselves to alleviate the sufferings of others and so on, an outpouring of sympathy, etc. etc. That's virtuous and cute and all, yes. But I just hope we can just grow up and deal with this like any decent forward-looking society.
# posted by tectona @ 6:04 PM 
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